In the new year, domestic production has been reduced, imports have continued to decrease, reserve stocks are temporarily out of stock, which supports cotton price in the general trend. On the whole, American cotton has stepped out of the bottoming form since last year. After Zheng cotton fell to the 12300 line in November last year, the fluctuation space in the past year is 12200-14200, with little difference between the low point last year. The short-term key is the formation of the purchase price at the end of September, but it is less likely that the current position of cotton price will continue to fall deeply.
1、 China, the United States India
In the new year, the domestic production reduction is serious. According to the investigation of various institutions, the output of the new year is expected to be no more than 5.5 million tons. According to the survey conducted by domestic companies in Xinjiang, the total output in the new year may be lower, the industry's forecast is between 5.2-5.5 million tons.
There is little dispute about production. But there have been many disputes on the consumption level. Major institutions are expected to have about 7.5 million tons. In 2014, the output was about 6.4 million tons, the import volume was 1.67 million tons, the inventory was about 60000 tons, totaling about 8.13 million tons. Since the withdrawal of the state storage last year, the market sentiment has been pessimistic. Considering this factor, the inventory at the end of last year at the end of current period is low, so the domestic consumption of 7.5 million tons is overestimated.
2. The United States
In the new year, cotton production in the United States will be reduced. USDA expects that the output will be 2.9 million tons, the available export volume will be about 2.2 million tons, a decrease of more than 200000 tons compared with last year.
At the same time, China's share in the U.S. cotton export market has also declined significantly, falling to about 22% in 2014. In 2014 / 15, China imported 529000 tons of American cotton, which is higher than the level of 2013 / 14, but far lower than the average value of the previous five years (about 940000 tons). According to this proportion, it is estimated that in 2015 / 16, China's imports of American cotton will be between 440000 tons 530000 tons.
There are uncertain factors in India. Although the planting area may decrease, the monsoon rains in September will increase, the cotton growth environment will improve, the output may increase.
However, Indian officials have announced that the new year will continue to store, India will absorb excess inventory, which will greatly reduce the pressure on the international market. judging India's collection disposal of reserves this year, the Indian government has adjusted its policies. Previously, the industry generally believed that India was unable to maintain the reserve inventory, would sell all the inventory within the year. Because of the large inventory, price reduction is needed to achieve, which will cause pressure on the market. However, the domestic market of India has accepted this part of cotton, the current reserve stock is less than 400000 tons. India's collection storage has prevented the international cotton price further falling, which is also one reason why the US cotton has set a new low this year.
2、 China imports
This year, apart the internal tariff allocation of 894000 tons, the state did issue any new quotas. This is the first time since China imported a large amount of foreign cotton in 2004. Next year is uncertain, but it is more likely to continue this year's policy. That is to say, in addition to 894000 tons of internal tariff allocation, there is no other quota available for later factories. according to the price of foreign cotton, it is suitable for customs clearance with full tariff. In 2014 / 15, China imported 1.67 million tons of cotton. At present, various agencies have a very low estimate of China's import, about 1.5 million tons. If the quota policy remains unchanged, the import volume is expected to further reduce at the current foreign cotton price.
3、 Reserve stock problem reserve stock is a long-term problem. In 2015, the No. 1 central document proposed that we should rationally determine the scale of grain, cotton, sugar meat. Due to the huge reserve of cotton, how to de stock is a key point of the market. In July August this year, it was the first time after the marketization of cotton. this time, we can infer the attitude of the state towards the reserve stock: whether to discard the reserve at all costs, to gently discard the reserve so as to suppress the market? the actual situation, the attitude of the state is the latter. another point of view, at the current cotton price, domestic cotton production will continue to decrease next year. Under the circumstance that the gap can be further expanded the official can reduce the loss in the next year, the country should sell at a low price. As long as the inventory is disposed of at any cost, the current inventory can be temporarily removed the balance sheet.
4、 Due to the general loss in the new cotton purchase market last year, this year's Xinjiang ginning plant is very cautious. In addition, the loan is in place, there has been a large number of purchases. Compared with previous years, cotton farmers are satisfied with the current purchase price. As a result, the two sides are still deadlocked. At present, the purchase price in Xinjiang ranges 5.2-5.8 yuan / kg, the lint discount price ranges 12000-13500 yuan / ton. The production reduction in the mainland is relatively serious, the purchase price is more than 6 yuan / kg. According to the current purchase price, the lint discount is still higher than that of futures, but because the purchase does have a large amount, the mainstream price has been formed, the market has been affected temporarily. The acquisition market should be clear by the end of September.
5、 Risk point
1. Slow export of American cotton
At present, the risk lies in the slow restriction of American cotton sales. According to the statistics of USDA, as of September 3, in 2015 / 16, 633000 tons of upland cotton had been signed in the United States, which was a low level in the past five years, down 44% year on year, 47.8% lower than the five-year average. At present, the main importing countries of American cotton are China, Vietnam, Turkey Mexico. By country, only China's imports have decreased, but also Turkey's imports are lower than the same period last year.
But on the other hand, in recent years, with the increase of cotton production in India, China has imported more Indian cotton than American cotton. However, in 2014, India received a large amount of reserves, resulting in a decrease in the number of available exports. The total amount of China's imported cotton this year is on a year-on-year basis